No. 1377 Analyzing Results of General Election 2024
The ruling bloc of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito has badly lost in the general election. The ‘slush funds’ had triggered fury of the electorate, which has led to victory of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and other opposition parties. Meanwhile, ‘clearly visible money’, or spending tax money on preparation of war efforts, was not raised as an issue of contention, and therefore, the Constitution-defending parties did not successfully gain votes. Let’s prepare immediately for the 2025 July election of the House of Councilors.
LET’S FIGHT TO OPEN A PATH TOWARD SHEER PRINCIPLES OF CONSTITUTION IN CAMPAIGNING FOR UPPER HOUSE ELECTION
Points at issue during the recent election campaign should not have been limited to the ‘scandalous money’: the government’s war boosting groundwork and preferential treatments of big businesses should have been contended, if the election had aimed at changing politics of the ruling coalition rule. What should have been expected is not only the big advance of the CDP but also that of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP).
In fact, however, both of the two parties failed. Instead, the Kokumin-Minshu-to, or the Party for the People, has made a successful evolution. New, rightist parties have won in the lower chamber, too, such as the Hoshu-to (the Conservative Party) and the Sansei-to.
Concerning the CDP, the biggest opposition, its pledge was ‘political reforms’, which is right. But it stressed ‘inheritance’ as for national security and diplomacy, taking an ambiguous stance on nuclear power generation and the consumption tax. The CDP led by President Noda keeps a distance from the Communist Party, trying to work upon conservative strata to be influenced.
Many of voters who cast a ballot to the CDP hoped to change the LDP- Komeito coalition entity of evil, but the CDP’s leadership may believe that the Noda’s political direction was effectively braced. The coalition was defeated, but the axis of coordinate has not been shifted to the side of pro-Constitution camp.
A totalitarian parliament may emerge
The government led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is a minority government, being in a hopeless position. It cannot make a decision without cooperation from third parties. As far as political reforms are concerned, the administration will accept demands of the opposition camp to a certain extent. The war preparation works, however, have become a fait accompli, being irreversible.
On November 5 the presidential election will be held in the United States. Its result may increase military tension in the Asian region. The US will request the LDP and the opposition parties to cooperate with its policy to encircle China for further intensification.
Regarding ‘strengthening deterrence’ and ‘pivot on the US-Japan alliance’, the LDP, the Kokumin and the Ishin are unified together, and the CDP is similar to them. That means the parliament may become a one-party-rule entity in terms of national security and diplomacy.
July election will be vital for retrieval
Political forces which eagerly seek amendment of the Constitution failed to occupy the two-thirds majority seats in the House, the number of lawmakers necessary to propose a bill to revise the Constitution. The corrupt ruling LDP is not confident enough at this moment in engaging in a referendum to rewrite the Constitution, an extraordinary event. In this sense the ruling bloc will stage political maneuvers on the opposition parties.
Under these circumstances, politics will not get better, even if the LDP-Komeito bloc was devastated, unless the opposition CDP maintains a staunch position. In this sense the focal point in the July 2025 election of the House of Councilors lies in to which extent the pro-Constitution forces, including the SDP and the JCP, could retrieve their support. It is also important to rebuild a joint front of opposition forces, which now faces an utter crisis.
The New Socialist Party (NSP) has fought tirelessly, supporting the SDP’s candidates in the general election. Many citizens who worried about the current situation of the opposition camp were attracted by the joint efforts of the SDP and the NSP. We have to fight until victory by organizing these people toward a common struggle to defend the constitutional principles of no-war and no-belligerency, elimination of nuclear power generation and fair redistribution of incomes. The NSP will work hard to win in the proportional representation channel by way of the SDP and in supporting the SDP’s candidates in the constituencies.
自公が惨敗し、「裏金」への怒りが立憲民主党などを躍進させた。一方、戦争準備への税金投入などの「表金」は争点化されず、護憲勢力は伸びなかった。参院選に向け、直ちに準備をしよう。
自公の悪政転換を目指す以上、「裏金」だけでなく戦争準備の強行、大企業優遇も争点のはずであった。立憲民主党の躍進と合わせ社民党や共産党も躍進してしかるべきであった。
しかし、両党は伸びずに国民民主党が躍進し、衆議院に保守党や参政党が登場した。立民の公約は「政治改革」はともかくとして、安保・外交では「継承性」を強調、原発・消費税はあいまいであり、野田・立民は共産党と距離を置き、保守層を取り込むことに傾斜した。
立民に投じた国民の多くは自公の悪政総体の転換に期待をかけたのだが、立民指導部は野田路線が支持されたと受け止めるだろう。自公は大きな打撃を受けたが、政治の座標軸は護憲側に寄ったわけではない。
翼賛国会の危険も
死に体・少数与党の石破政権は、野党の協力がなければ何も決められない。
「政治改革」は、野党の要求を一定程度飲むだろう。一方、戦争準備は既成事実化されており、後戻りできないところまできている。
11月５日投票のアメリカ大統領選の結果は、アジアの軍事的緊張を増幅しかねない。米国は、自民党や野党に中国包囲網強化への協力を求めてくる。
「抑止力強化」と「日米同盟基軸」については、自民と国民・維新は一体だし、立憲も大差はないから「安保・外交」翼賛国会がつくられかねない。
挽回へ大事な来夏
明確な改憲推進勢力は、発議に必要な３分の２議席を割った。しかし、腐敗自民党に改憲国民投票の大事業達成の自信はない。それだけに、野党に対する工作も強まるだろう。
こうした中で立民が踏み止まらない限り、せっかく自公に鉄槌を下しても、政治はよくならない。そのためにも来夏の参院選で社民党、共産党など護憲勢力がどこまで挽回できるかが焦点だ。危機に瀕する立憲野党共闘の再建も大事だ。
新社会党は、社民党候補を推薦して全力を挙げた。社民党と新社会党の共同には、野党の現状を危惧する多くの市民が集まってきた。これを不戦・非武装、脱原発、所得再分配を求める共同の闘いに拡げ、参院選比例共同名簿と社民党選挙区候補の勝利をめざして戦い抜かなくてはならない。
英訳版↓
No. 1377 Analyzing Results of General Election 2024
The ruling bloc of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito has badly lost in the general election. The ‘slush funds’ had triggered fury of the electorate, which has led to victory of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and other opposition parties. Meanwhile, ‘clearly visible money’, or spending tax money on preparation of war efforts, was not raised as an issue of contention, and therefore, the Constitution-defending parties did not successfully gain votes. Let’s prepare immediately for the 2025 July election of the House of Councilors.
LET’S FIGHT TO OPEN A PATH TOWARD SHEER PRINCIPLES OF CONSTITUTION IN CAMPAIGNING FOR UPPER HOUSE ELECTION
Points at issue during the recent election campaign should not have been limited to the ‘scandalous money’: the government’s war boosting groundwork and preferential treatments of big businesses should have been contended, if the election had aimed at changing politics of the ruling coalition rule. What should have been expected is not only the big advance of the CDP but also that of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP).
In fact, however, both of the two parties failed. Instead, the Kokumin-Minshu-to, or the Party for the People, has made a successful evolution. New, rightist parties have won in the lower chamber, too, such as the Hoshu-to (the Conservative Party) and the Sansei-to.
Concerning the CDP, the biggest opposition, its pledge was ‘political reforms’, which is right. But it stressed ‘inheritance’ as for national security and diplomacy, taking an ambiguous stance on nuclear power generation and the consumption tax. The CDP led by President Noda keeps a distance from the Communist Party, trying to work upon conservative strata to be influenced.
Many of voters who cast a ballot to the CDP hoped to change the LDP- Komeito coalition entity of evil, but the CDP’s leadership may believe that the Noda’s political direction was effectively braced. The coalition was defeated, but the axis of coordinate has not been shifted to the side of pro-Constitution camp.
A totalitarian parliament may emerge
The government led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is a minority government, being in a hopeless position. It cannot make a decision without cooperation from third parties. As far as political reforms are concerned, the administration will accept demands of the opposition camp to a certain extent. The war preparation works, however, have become a fait accompli, being irreversible.
On November 5 the presidential election will be held in the United States. Its result may increase military tension in the Asian region. The US will request the LDP and the opposition parties to cooperate with its policy to encircle China for further intensification.
Regarding ‘strengthening deterrence’ and ‘pivot on the US-Japan alliance’, the LDP, the Kokumin and the Ishin are unified together, and the CDP is similar to them. That means the parliament may become a one-party-rule entity in terms of national security and diplomacy.
July election will be vital for retrieval
Political forces which eagerly seek amendment of the Constitution failed to occupy the two-thirds majority seats in the House, the number of lawmakers necessary to propose a bill to revise the Constitution. The corrupt ruling LDP is not confident enough at this moment in engaging in a referendum to rewrite the Constitution, an extraordinary event. In this sense the ruling bloc will stage political maneuvers on the opposition parties.
Under these circumstances, politics will not get better, even if the LDP-Komeito bloc was devastated, unless the opposition CDP maintains a staunch position. In this sense the focal point in the July 2025 election of the House of Councilors lies in to which extent the pro-Constitution forces, including the SDP and the JCP, could retrieve their support. It is also important to rebuild a joint front of opposition forces, which now faces an utter crisis.
The New Socialist Party (NSP) has fought tirelessly, supporting the SDP’s candidates in the general election. Many citizens who worried about the current situation of the opposition camp were attracted by the joint efforts of the SDP and the NSP. We have to fight until victory by organizing these people toward a common struggle to defend the constitutional principles of no-war and no-belligerency, elimination of nuclear power generation and fair redistribution of incomes. The NSP will work hard to win in the proportional representation channel by way of the SDP and in supporting the SDP’s candidates in the constituencies.
November 6, 2024