No. 1416 Uncertainties following LDP’s Presidential Election
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is to hold its presidential election, which has triggered unprecedented events today. A general outlook will be clear by the end of this autumn. This election does not simply mean an internal uproar of the political party. The phenomena reflect tectonic reformation, a result produced following the October’s general election and the Upper House election held in July. We must watch developments.
GENERAL ELECTION FOLLOWING DIET DISSOLUTION AND AMENDMENT OF WAR-RENOUNCING CONSTITUTION
The ruling LDP has made a decision to plan its presidential election before the expiration of the official term of President Ishiba Shigeru (September 2027) in the recent meeting of its parliamentary members of both of the Lower and Upper Houses. The party will made a final decision after confirming conclusions reached by the lawmakers and its local organizations.
Fluid situation inside LDP
Some prospect will be seen in September over the presidential election. If the LDP has one, President Ishiba, practically, will be forced to resign.
Inside the LDP the situation is dynamic but uncertain; internal strives are being undergone from a candidate Takaichi Sanae, who is supported by lawmakers affiliated to the former Abe faction, those linked to the Unification Church, to the inter-mediate groups and up to the groups in favor of Ishiba’s continued presidency. Nobody can tell eventual consequences. The LDP faces a critical political challenge, called New Cold War era, following the defeat in the July election for the House of Councilors.
The election has drastically changed the political battleground, in which for the past three decades lawmakers have fought between the LDP and Komeito camp on one hand and the Democratic Party-led opposition bloc on the other. In the July election the ruling coalition of the LDP and the Komeito was harshly defeated, but the rightist parties, including the Kokumin (= the Party for the People) and the Sansei-to (= Party of Do it Yourself), made a remarkable advance, which resulted in the retreat of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which now ranks in the third position among the opposition parties in terms of the proportional representation vote count. The rightist opposition parties, not only the Sansei-to but also the Kokumin and the Ishin (=the Reformation Party), are characterized by their more rightwing stance in relation to the issues of the Constitution and nuclear power generation.
What will happen after presidential election?
According to a survey held in the end of July by the Mainichi Shinbun newspaper on a supporting rate of the government of Ishiba in terms of political party affiliation, 35% of the CDP followers and 30% of those of the Ishin and the Communist Party showed a positive sign. Among those who are affiliated to the Kokumin and the Sansei-to, only 7% of them enjoyed the Ishiba’s administration.
Another study was conducted in the similar period by the Tokyo Shinbun newspaper on a question asking, ‘who is suitable for the position of next prime minister?’: the ratios in favor of Ms Takaichi show that 14% among the LDP supporters, 25% among those who like the Kokumin, 40% of those of the Sansei-to and 20% of those affiliated to the Reiwa party.
Both of the two surveys suggest that those who voted for the Kokumin and the Sansei-to have ‘more dangerous mentality’, compared with the LDP supporters. We can understand well about civic groups’ rallies held in front of the official residence of Prime Minister who call for ‘Ishiba, don’t resign’.
We can foresee dissolution of the Cabinet and succeeding general election after the LDP’s presidential election. Preparatory processes for wars are going on under the name of ‘strengthening deterrence capability.’ The regime supporters and the right-wingers believe that ‘the ultimate barrier cannot be broken’ without altering Article Nine of the Constitution.
A society that looks like a bottomless pit
In the House of Councilors, a condition is ready for amending the Constitution, but in the House of Representatives, the CDP keeps the rank of the biggest opposition party. Those in favor of the amendment anticipate to have an earlier general election to increase lawmakers from the Sansei-to and the Kokumin, in spite of the smaller number of seats of the ruling LDP and the Komeito, so that the CDP can be fluctuated and then the Social-Democratic Party and the Communist Party can be destroyed. Pro-amendment people think over, for this purpose, who is more suitable, Takaichi or incumbent Ishiba, or another presidency. The political circle in favor of the Constitution amendment pays serious attention to developments to be yielded by the Trump government, too. We must be alert what will happen. We must prepare at the same time for a coming general election.
自民党総裁選を巡り異例の事態となっている。秋までには大勢がはっきりするだろう。単なる自民党の内紛ではない。衆院選・参院選に示された政治の激動を反映している。注目していこう。
自民党は８月８日の両院議員総会で、石破茂総裁の任期満了（27年９月）を待たずに総裁選実施の検討をすることを決めた。国会議員、地方組織の賛否を確認して判断する。
自民党内は流動化
９月に入ると、総裁選を実施するか、しないかが具体化する。実施となれば、石破総裁は事実上退任に追い込まれる可能性は大きい。
旧安倍派など統一教会がらみの議員が推す高市早苗氏から中間派、石破続投派にいたるまで、党内は流動化しており、どこに落着くか分らない。参院選の惨敗と、「新冷戦時代」といわれる歴史的転換に直面して自民党も大揺れだ。
参院選は、30年程続いた自公と民主党系を軸とした野党の対抗関係を変容させた。自公は惨敗したが、国民・参政など右派勢力が急伸し、比例得票率で立憲民主は野党第三党に後退した。右派野党は、参政はもとより国民・維新も、憲法や原発などでは公明より右だ。
総裁選の先に何が
毎日新聞の７月末の支持政党別の石破内閣支持率調査では、立憲支持層の35％、維新と共産党の支持層の30％に対し、国民と参政支持層の支持率はいずれも７％。同時期の東京新聞によれば、「次の首相にふさわしい人」に高市氏を上げた割合は、自民支持層14 ％、国民支持層25％、参政支持層40％、れいわ支持層20％だ。
両新聞社の調査とも国民・参政支持層が自民支持層よりも「危うい心情」にあることを物語っている。首相官邸前で「石破辞めるな」集会が開かれるのもうなずけるというものだ。
総裁選の先には、解散・総選挙と９条改憲があると見ていい。「抑止力強化」の名のもとに戦争準備が進行しているが、９条改憲しなければ「臥竜点睛を欠く」ということだろう。
底の抜けた社会で
参院では９条改憲発議の条件は整ったが、衆院では立憲が野党第一党。改憲派は早期に解散・総選挙を行い、自公が多少減っても参政・国民を増やして立憲を揺さぶり、社共を壊滅させたい。そのためにも石破続投がいいか、高市氏を担ぐのか、それとも他のだれか等々、トランプ米政権の動向も横目に改憲派も懸命だろう。何が起こるか、要注意だ。総選挙の準備も急がれる。
英訳版↓
No. 1416 Uncertainties following LDP’s Presidential Election
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is to hold its presidential election, which has triggered unprecedented events today. A general outlook will be clear by the end of this autumn. This election does not simply mean an internal uproar of the political party. The phenomena reflect tectonic reformation, a result produced following the October’s general election and the Upper House election held in July. We must watch developments.
GENERAL ELECTION FOLLOWING DIET DISSOLUTION AND AMENDMENT OF WAR-RENOUNCING CONSTITUTION
The ruling LDP has made a decision to plan its presidential election before the expiration of the official term of President Ishiba Shigeru (September 2027) in the recent meeting of its parliamentary members of both of the Lower and Upper Houses. The party will made a final decision after confirming conclusions reached by the lawmakers and its local organizations.
Fluid situation inside LDP
Some prospect will be seen in September over the presidential election. If the LDP has one, President Ishiba, practically, will be forced to resign.
Inside the LDP the situation is dynamic but uncertain; internal strives are being undergone from a candidate Takaichi Sanae, who is supported by lawmakers affiliated to the former Abe faction, those linked to the Unification Church, to the inter-mediate groups and up to the groups in favor of Ishiba’s continued presidency. Nobody can tell eventual consequences. The LDP faces a critical political challenge, called New Cold War era, following the defeat in the July election for the House of Councilors.
The election has drastically changed the political battleground, in which for the past three decades lawmakers have fought between the LDP and Komeito camp on one hand and the Democratic Party-led opposition bloc on the other. In the July election the ruling coalition of the LDP and the Komeito was harshly defeated, but the rightist parties, including the Kokumin (= the Party for the People) and the Sansei-to (= Party of Do it Yourself), made a remarkable advance, which resulted in the retreat of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which now ranks in the third position among the opposition parties in terms of the proportional representation vote count. The rightist opposition parties, not only the Sansei-to but also the Kokumin and the Ishin (=the Reformation Party), are characterized by their more rightwing stance in relation to the issues of the Constitution and nuclear power generation.
What will happen after presidential election?
According to a survey held in the end of July by the Mainichi Shinbun newspaper on a supporting rate of the government of Ishiba in terms of political party affiliation, 35% of the CDP followers and 30% of those of the Ishin and the Communist Party showed a positive sign. Among those who are affiliated to the Kokumin and the Sansei-to, only 7% of them enjoyed the Ishiba’s administration.
Another study was conducted in the similar period by the Tokyo Shinbun newspaper on a question asking, ‘who is suitable for the position of next prime minister?’: the ratios in favor of Ms Takaichi show that 14% among the LDP supporters, 25% among those who like the Kokumin, 40% of those of the Sansei-to and 20% of those affiliated to the Reiwa party.
Both of the two surveys suggest that those who voted for the Kokumin and the Sansei-to have ‘more dangerous mentality’, compared with the LDP supporters. We can understand well about civic groups’ rallies held in front of the official residence of Prime Minister who call for ‘Ishiba, don’t resign’.
We can foresee dissolution of the Cabinet and succeeding general election after the LDP’s presidential election. Preparatory processes for wars are going on under the name of ‘strengthening deterrence capability.’ The regime supporters and the right-wingers believe that ‘the ultimate barrier cannot be broken’ without altering Article Nine of the Constitution.
A society that looks like a bottomless pit
In the House of Councilors, a condition is ready for amending the Constitution, but in the House of Representatives, the CDP keeps the rank of the biggest opposition party. Those in favor of the amendment anticipate to have an earlier general election to increase lawmakers from the Sansei-to and the Kokumin, in spite of the smaller number of seats of the ruling LDP and the Komeito, so that the CDP can be fluctuated and then the Social-Democratic Party and the Communist Party can be destroyed. Pro-amendment people think over, for this purpose, who is more suitable, Takaichi or incumbent Ishiba, or another presidency. The political circle in favor of the Constitution amendment pays serious attention to developments to be yielded by the Trump government, too. We must be alert what will happen. We must prepare at the same time for a coming general election.
August 27, 2025