No. 1224 Attention Points in General Election in Germany
The German Parliament election is scheduled to vote on September 26, 2021.It is envisaged that the two political parties which form the current coalition might not gain the majority and that the Greens may come in as a new component. Their policy lines are different respectively, and so negotiation to form partnership will be tough.
THE GREENS IS MAJOR PLAYER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION
Election system in Germany
Comparing with the Japan’s small constituency system accompanied by the proportional representation channel of the general elections to elect lawmakers of the House of Representatives, the German federal election system combined with the proportional representation course is quite different. The same point lies in that a voter has two ballots to elect a candidate and a political party.
In Germany a political party will be given legislative seats in accordance with the rate obtained in the proportional representation system (not the number of seats gained through the proportional representation channel). And therefore the number of proportional representation ballots is definitely important.
Thus, the number of seats which a party obtained in the small constituencies is subtracted from the given seats. The difference is the number of seats of winners, or candidates fielded from the proportional representation system. They are given a seat consecutively along the ranking of the list. If a party fails to win the 5% level of support, no seat is allocated, which is a defect, though. But candidates who have won in the small constituencies are given seats unconditionally. The German electoral system reflects wills of people relatively right.
Points of contention – deficits due to the pandemic
Contentious points include taxes, finance, economy, climate change, transportation, pension and elderly care, housing concerns, labor market, immigrants, foreign affairs and security issues, education and etc.
One of the biggest focal points is how to fill the financial deficits created by the anti-pandemic measures. Concretely speaking, it is whether voters could approve a solution through a tax surging policy to the rich.
Climate change is also a focal point. In July intensive rain storms hit the western region of the country, causing floods along the medium-and-small-sized rivers as well as mud slides. Many houses were destroyed and flown away, yielding several hundreds of death toll and missing.
Germans are inherently keen to environmental issues: the recent disaster has taught them clearly again that climate change relates to natural catastrophe. They are obliged to think over how to reduce speedily carbon-dioxide emissions.
Administration may change
The administration led by Chancellor Merkel has lasted for 16 years. For 12 years of the rule it has been a broad coalition government of CDU/CSU (the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).
Both of the two parties have astonishingly lost people’s support during the years of coalition; at one time the SPD’s supporting rate was a dozen-digit percentage. At the moment the two parties enjoy more or less 20% of support. Judging from the figures, it is hard to maintain the coalition. Meanwhile the Alliance 90/The Greens is growing, recording some 20% of support.
In Germany political parties do not regard the AfD, a rightist party, as a partner. Several groupings of a coalition administration are plausible from a numerical point of view, including the The Left and the Free Democratic Party, a middle-of-the-road party, but it is uncertain to form a stable administration if the Greens party is uninvolved.
Let’s look at closely the election’s result and subsequent negotiation to shape a government.
ドイツの選挙制度
ドイツ連邦議会の小選挙区比例代表併用制と、日本の衆議院の小選挙区比例代表並立制とは、似ても似つかぬ制度。個人と政党の２票を投ずることは同じだ。
ドイツでは、政党には比例区での獲得投票率に従って総議席数（比例区の議席数ではない）から議席が割り当てられるので、比例区票が決定的に重要である。
こうして政党が獲得した議席数から、小選挙区での獲得議席数を引いた差が比例区での当選者数となり、名簿の上位から当選者が決まる。比例区で５％の得票を得られなかった政党には、議席が割り当てられない（ 但し、小選挙区での当選者には無条件で議席が与えられる）という欠点はあるが、民意を比較的正しく反映する選挙制度だ。
コロナ赤字が争点
争点は、税・財政・経済、気候変動・交通、年金・介護、住宅、労働市場、移民、外交・安全保障、教育等である。
コロナ対策で生じた財政赤字をどう埋めるか、具体的には富裕者への増税等で行うか否かが最大の争点の一つだ。
気候変動も争点。７月にドイツ西部を襲った集中豪雨は、中小河川の氾濫や土砂災害を引き起こし、多数の家屋を流出・損壊させた。死者・行方不明者は数百名にのぼる。
元来環境意識の高いドイツ国民も、気候変動が災害と無関係でないことを脳裏に焼き付け、二酸化炭素の排出量を削減する方法とスピードに関心を持たざるを得なくなっている。
政権交代の可能性
メルケル政権は16年続いている。その内12年間は、ＣＤＵ／ＣＳＵ（キリスト教民主／社会同盟）とドイツ社会民主党（ＳＰＤ）との大連立政権である。
両党ともに、大連立政権の間に支持率を著しく低下させており、ＳＰＤは１割台政党になった。現在はそれぞれ20％前後であり、大連立政権を維持することは、数字上困難である。一方、同盟90／緑の党が伸びており、支持率は20％前後である。
右翼政党ＡｆＤを、他の政党は連立の対象としていない。ドイツ左翼党、中道政党の自由民主党を含めた数字上の連立の組み合わせは幾つかあるが、緑の党抜きの安定政権は考えにくい状況だ。
選挙結果と連立交渉に注目したい。
英訳版↓
No. 1224 Attention Points in General Election in Germany
The German Parliament election is scheduled to vote on September 26, 2021.It is envisaged that the two political parties which form the current coalition might not gain the majority and that the Greens may come in as a new component. Their policy lines are different respectively, and so negotiation to form partnership will be tough.
THE GREENS IS MAJOR PLAYER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION
Election system in Germany
Comparing with the Japan’s small constituency system accompanied by the proportional representation channel of the general elections to elect lawmakers of the House of Representatives, the German federal election system combined with the proportional representation course is quite different. The same point lies in that a voter has two ballots to elect a candidate and a political party.
In Germany a political party will be given legislative seats in accordance with the rate obtained in the proportional representation system (not the number of seats gained through the proportional representation channel). And therefore the number of proportional representation ballots is definitely important.
Thus, the number of seats which a party obtained in the small constituencies is subtracted from the given seats. The difference is the number of seats of winners, or candidates fielded from the proportional representation system. They are given a seat consecutively along the ranking of the list. If a party fails to win the 5% level of support, no seat is allocated, which is a defect, though. But candidates who have won in the small constituencies are given seats unconditionally. The German electoral system reflects wills of people relatively right.
Points of contention – deficits due to the pandemic
Contentious points include taxes, finance, economy, climate change, transportation, pension and elderly care, housing concerns, labor market, immigrants, foreign affairs and security issues, education and etc.
One of the biggest focal points is how to fill the financial deficits created by the anti-pandemic measures. Concretely speaking, it is whether voters could approve a solution through a tax surging policy to the rich.
Climate change is also a focal point. In July intensive rain storms hit the western region of the country, causing floods along the medium-and-small-sized rivers as well as mud slides. Many houses were destroyed and flown away, yielding several hundreds of death toll and missing.
Germans are inherently keen to environmental issues: the recent disaster has taught them clearly again that climate change relates to natural catastrophe. They are obliged to think over how to reduce speedily carbon-dioxide emissions.
Administration may change
The administration led by Chancellor Merkel has lasted for 16 years. For 12 years of the rule it has been a broad coalition government of CDU/CSU (the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).
Both of the two parties have astonishingly lost people’s support during the years of coalition; at one time the SPD’s supporting rate was a dozen-digit percentage. At the moment the two parties enjoy more or less 20% of support. Judging from the figures, it is hard to maintain the coalition. Meanwhile the Alliance 90/The Greens is growing, recording some 20% of support.
In Germany political parties do not regard the AfD, a rightist party, as a partner. Several groupings of a coalition administration are plausible from a numerical point of view, including the The Left and the Free Democratic Party, a middle-of-the-road party, but it is uncertain to form a stable administration if the Greens party is uninvolved.
Let’s look at closely the election’s result and subsequent negotiation to shape a government.
September 7, 2021