The presidential election was held in Republic of Korea (ROK) in March. Candidate Yoon Sok-yeol, a conservative, defeated by a tiny margin his counterpart Candidate Lee Jae-myung, a progressive. New President will be inaugurated May 10. It has passed five years that alternation is made between the progressives and the conservatives in the government of the country. The political change will impact on the North-South relations, US-China relations and diplomacy with Japan.
PROGRESSIVE CAMP IS READY TO STAGE COUNTERATTACKS
Mr. Yoon obtained 48.56% of the total votes, while Mr. Lee, 47.83%, with a very small difference of 0.73 point. The parliament has 300 seats, of which 172 are taken by the opposition, the Democratic Party of Korea, and 113 are held by the ruling, the People Power Party and its allied forces. The new president will be obliged to work under pressures to implement his objectives.
Mr. Yoon proposes;
Decisive actions against the North side which violates laws,
Intensification of US-ROK alliance,
Reciprocal relationships with China
Future-oriented relations with Japan
And he presents changes in the policy on the North-South relations which the current Moon Jae-in government has developed for better.
‘Priority is Denuclearization of the North’
The Moon administration has worked, as a basis, for improvement of the North-South relations and a simultaneous, good pace in denuclearization processes, while the new government insists that the first is denuclearization of the North and then comes a progress in the bilateral relations. The Moon government does not take part in the Quad security framework (an alliance of US, Japan, Australia and India to contain China), whereas Mr. Yoon has declared to join its working group.
During the election campaign, Mr. Yoon announced a possibility that trilateral security cooperation of US, Japan and ROK would be a military alliance; that was harshly condemned by the Lee camp as a violent remark. It says that Mr. Yoon shares assertions of the Japan’s rightist groups, which implies the Japanese Self Defense Forces could intervene in ROK in emergency.
Mr. Yoon, saying that his government will respect China in a reciprocal manner, pledges in his written statement an additional deployment of the THAARD missile defense systems against the nation. The new administration will provoke China, as she retaliated in 2016 ROK in the economic domain to respond to the ROK’s decision to fix the system.
The new leader has won by a slender majority, being in the parliamentary minority; if he dares to carry out stringent policies against the North region and China, he will face massive objections. One of his pledges, the abolition of Department on Women and Family Affairs, is already under fire. Women oppose the policy boldly because the department will vanish as it works for overcoming discriminations against women. People rapidly join the Democratic Party after the presidential elections. By March 31, reportedly, the figure reached 40 thousand, out of which 80% are young female voters.
The largest national center of trade unions of ROK, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, claims that the coming five years of Yoon Sok-yeol will be a hell for the working population, urging workers to be ready to fight. Workers in ROK are not discouraged by a change of President as mass movements there are resilient to counter the governing authorities.
Japan-ROK relations will be murky
Concerning diplomacy with Japan, Mr. Yoon succeeds the policy taken by the previous government, ‘future-oriented bilateral relationship’. The new authority will not easily compromise with the Japanese government on account that it has changed to the traditional from the liberal. Mr. Yoon, too, has to keep a position ‘to clarify the truths in the history so that the two governments can equally arrange to reach a solution’. Meanwhile, the Kishida government of Japan sticks to a position that ROK should provide a resolution. The defiance prevents the mutual relations from going better.
得票率は、ユン氏48・56％に対しイ氏47・83％と０・73㌽の僅差。国会は３００議席中、新政権の野党・共に民主党が１７２、与党の国民の力など１１３。新大統領の思い通りにはいかない構成だ。
勝利したユン氏は、①「北」の不法行動に対する断固たる対処②韓米同盟の強化③相互尊重の韓中関係④未来志向の韓日関係を挙げる。ムン・ジェイン政権が努めた南北関係改善の転換を掲げる。
「非核化が先」と
ムン政権は「南北関係の発展と非核化の好循環」を基調としたが、ユン氏は「北の非核化が先、後で南北関係改善」と主張。ムン政権はクアッド（日米豪印４カ国の対中包囲網）に参加しなかったが、ユン氏は「ワーキンググループに参加する」と明言した。
選挙戦ではユン氏は「日米韓の安保協力が軍事同盟に発展する可能性」と公言し、イ陣営から「日本の極右勢力の主張に同調している。有事に自衛隊が韓国に入るという妄言だ」と指弾された。
ユン氏は中国とは「相互尊重」というが、公約に対中国ミサイル（THHARD）の追加配備を明記。16年の配備決定で経済報復した中国を刺激するだろう。
薄氷の当選かつ少数与党なので、これら対「北」・対中政策を強行すれば大規模な反撃にあうだろう。すでに猛反発を招いている公約に「女性家族部廃止」がある。女性差別克服を推進する政府機関の廃止方針に女性の反対運動が盛り上がっている。選挙後に共に民主党への入党者が急増、３月13日までに４万人近くに達し、そのうち８割が若い女性という。
韓国最大のナショナルセンター・民主労総は、「ユン・ソクヨルの５年間は労働者にとって地獄だ」と戦闘態勢を整えるよう檄を飛ばす。大衆運動の実力で権力の攻撃を跳ね返す韓国では、大統領が変わってもがっかりなどしていない。
｢打開｣見えぬ日韓
さて、「未来志向の韓日関係」だけはムン政権の姿勢を継承する。進歩から保守に変わったから日本に妥協的になるとは限らない。ユン氏も「過去について真相究明し、双方が整理して解決」する姿勢は堅持せざるをえない。一方、岸田政権は「韓国が解決策を」という姿勢を固辞する。これでは日韓関係は改善しない。
英訳版↓
No. 1252 ROK’s New Government is Conservative
The presidential election was held in Republic of Korea (ROK) in March. Candidate Yoon Sok-yeol, a conservative, defeated by a tiny margin his counterpart Candidate Lee Jae-myung, a progressive. New President will be inaugurated May 10. It has passed five years that alternation is made between the progressives and the conservatives in the government of the country. The political change will impact on the North-South relations, US-China relations and diplomacy with Japan.
PROGRESSIVE CAMP IS READY TO STAGE COUNTERATTACKS
Mr. Yoon obtained 48.56% of the total votes, while Mr. Lee, 47.83%, with a very small difference of 0.73 point. The parliament has 300 seats, of which 172 are taken by the opposition, the Democratic Party of Korea, and 113 are held by the ruling, the People Power Party and its allied forces. The new president will be obliged to work under pressures to implement his objectives.
Mr. Yoon proposes;
- Decisive actions against the North side which violates laws,
- Intensification of US-ROK alliance,
- Reciprocal relationships with China
- Future-oriented relations with Japan
And he presents changes in the policy on the North-South relations which the current Moon Jae-in government has developed for better.‘Priority is Denuclearization of the North’
The Moon administration has worked, as a basis, for improvement of the North-South relations and a simultaneous, good pace in denuclearization processes, while the new government insists that the first is denuclearization of the North and then comes a progress in the bilateral relations. The Moon government does not take part in the Quad security framework (an alliance of US, Japan, Australia and India to contain China), whereas Mr. Yoon has declared to join its working group.
During the election campaign, Mr. Yoon announced a possibility that trilateral security cooperation of US, Japan and ROK would be a military alliance; that was harshly condemned by the Lee camp as a violent remark. It says that Mr. Yoon shares assertions of the Japan’s rightist groups, which implies the Japanese Self Defense Forces could intervene in ROK in emergency.
Mr. Yoon, saying that his government will respect China in a reciprocal manner, pledges in his written statement an additional deployment of the THAARD missile defense systems against the nation. The new administration will provoke China, as she retaliated in 2016 ROK in the economic domain to respond to the ROK’s decision to fix the system.
The new leader has won by a slender majority, being in the parliamentary minority; if he dares to carry out stringent policies against the North region and China, he will face massive objections. One of his pledges, the abolition of Department on Women and Family Affairs, is already under fire. Women oppose the policy boldly because the department will vanish as it works for overcoming discriminations against women. People rapidly join the Democratic Party after the presidential elections. By March 31, reportedly, the figure reached 40 thousand, out of which 80% are young female voters.
The largest national center of trade unions of ROK, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, claims that the coming five years of Yoon Sok-yeol will be a hell for the working population, urging workers to be ready to fight. Workers in ROK are not discouraged by a change of President as mass movements there are resilient to counter the governing authorities.
Japan-ROK relations will be murky
Concerning diplomacy with Japan, Mr. Yoon succeeds the policy taken by the previous government, ‘future-oriented bilateral relationship’. The new authority will not easily compromise with the Japanese government on account that it has changed to the traditional from the liberal. Mr. Yoon, too, has to keep a position ‘to clarify the truths in the history so that the two governments can equally arrange to reach a solution’. Meanwhile, the Kishida government of Japan sticks to a position that ROK should provide a resolution. The defiance prevents the mutual relations from going better.
April 6, 2022