No. 1261 Confrontation for Hegemony Becomes Fairly Acute
Following the summit meetings of US President Biden in Seoul and Tokyo, the fourth-round of Quad meeting was held of leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India to create a US-led regional economic bloc. However, their agenda seems far from building a network to contain China, for discrepancies were seen of the parties who embrace own calculation.
‘CONTAINMENT NETWORK AGAINST CHINA’ – PROSPECT NOT EASY
President Biden’s visits to Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan and the consecutive Quad meeting were intended to recover the raison d’etre of the United States, which is losing its influence, and to restructure the hegemonic circle against China.
Intensions failed
The Indo-Pacific strategy taken initiative by the US and Japan aims to display ‘deterrence to the hegemonic behaviors of China’, but relations of the regional members with her are complicated. It is only the joint statement between the US and Japan that points to ‘China’, and the ones between US and ROK and of the Quad use phrases ‘according to international law’, ‘legitimate economic activities’ and ‘freedom of navigation and overflight’ in the texts.
India is essential among the four: though it has border conflicts with China, it prioritizes national interests to rivalry as is seen in the fact it is a member of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The rest parties are obliged to admit the posture of India in order to unite it.
Meanwhile, military responses against Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are emphasized in the US-ROK joint communique, including usage of phrases of ‘the enlarged deterrence strategy’, ‘to expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises and training’ and ‘to deploy strategic US military assets’, finalizing the dialogue-first policy of the previous administration led by President Moon Jae-in.
Disagreements on Russia, too
Concerning Russian intervention to Ukraine, the US-Japan statement underlines criticisms and sanctions on Russia, while the US-ROK version virtually says implementation of voluntary measures to impede Russia’s additional offensive commitments.
Russia is not referred to even in the Quad’s statement on account of India, which is treated carefully and politely because it has empowered itself militarily with weaponry of that nation.
The four-party alliance provides ‘ASEAN unity and centrality, or Association of South Eastern Asian Nations, but Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia have a one-party system and welcome investments of and trade with China. As for Myanmar, armaments are supplied to its military by Russia and China. The ‘unity and centrality’ sounds empty.
President Biden proposed an economic cooperation scheme to cope with China, IPEF or Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which, ostensibly, the members have ‘supported’. The US has not returned to TPP due to its domestic implications and the new formula removes the issue on tariffs. Is the new commerce plan attractive? Many nations keep a see-and-watch position.
Prime Minister Kishida Fumio pledged boosting Japan’s defense capabilities and compiling an increased budget in concert, while the US president mentioned ‘military intervention’ in an emergency on Taiwan. Responding to harsh condemnation from China, US Secretary of State reverted the president’s expression, rectifying to say that the US policy on Taiwan remains the same. But he added, complaining that ‘the nation is repressive internally and offensive externally.
Where will solution toward peace be found?
Separately, China and Russia have conducted joint flying exercises of bombers. DPRK has launched various types of missiles lately. The former two nations have rejected the UNSC’s resolution against DPRK to show a bloc of the three, while US-Japan coalition refuted it by deploying fighters.
No sign for peaceful solution can be seen in the Biden-Kishida combination’s diplomacy. It has just intensified military tensions as well as hostility for hegemony.
バイデン大統領の訪韓・訪日とクアッドへの思惑は、かすんできた米国の存在感を回復し、対中国の覇権体制を再構築することだった。
思惑は空振りに⁉
米日のインド太平洋戦略は「中国の覇権的行動の抑止」だが、地域諸国と中国との関係は複雑だ。「中国」を名指ししたのは日米共同声明だけで、米韓とクアッドの共同声明では「国際法順守、合法的な経済活動や航行の自由」などまで。
クアッドの目玉とされるインドは、中国との国境紛争などを抱えるが、対抗よりも中国主導の上海協力機構にも参加するなど利益確保を最優先。米日豪はインドを抱え込むため容認するしかない。
一方、米韓共同声明では「拡大抑止や合同演習の拡大、戦略資産の展開」など「北朝鮮」への軍事的対応を強調、ムン政権時の対話路線は消えた。
対ロシアも不一致
ロシアのウクライナ侵攻でも、日米共同声明ではロシア批判と制裁が強調されたが、米韓では「ロシアの追加的攻撃抑制のため、自主的措置の履行」が精一杯。
クアッドでも、ロシアの武器で軍事力を構築してきたインドに配慮、「ロシア」に言及もなかった。
クアッドは「ＡＳＥＡＮの一体性と中心性」を掲げるが、ベトナムやラオス、カンボジアは一党独裁の上、中国の投資や貿易を重視。ミャンマー軍にはロシアや中国が武器を提供など「一体性と中心性」は空文に近い。
バイデン氏は対中国の経済連携策としてＩＰＥＦ（インド太平洋経済枠組み）を提唱、各国は一応「支持」したが、米国は国内事情でＴＰＰ復帰もせず、関税問題も除外した提案にメリットがあるか各国は様子見だ。
岸田首相は「防衛力の抜本的強化と相当な防衛費増額」を約束、バイデン氏は台湾有事に「軍事介入」と発言。中国の激しい抗議に国務長官は「台湾政策は変わらず」と訂正したが「中国は内ではより抑圧的、外ではより攻撃的」と批判。
平和への「解」は
対して中ロは爆撃機を合同飛行。「北朝鮮」は各種ミサイルを発射、安保理の制裁決議も中ロが拒否して「三国連携」を誇示、日米は戦闘機で対抗。バイデン・岸田外交は覇権争いと軍事緊張を激化させたが、そこに平和への「解」はない。
英訳版↓
No. 1261 Confrontation for Hegemony Becomes Fairly Acute
Following the summit meetings of US President Biden in Seoul and Tokyo, the fourth-round of Quad meeting was held of leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India to create a US-led regional economic bloc. However, their agenda seems far from building a network to contain China, for discrepancies were seen of the parties who embrace own calculation.
‘CONTAINMENT NETWORK AGAINST CHINA’ – PROSPECT NOT EASY
President Biden’s visits to Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan and the consecutive Quad meeting were intended to recover the raison d’etre of the United States, which is losing its influence, and to restructure the hegemonic circle against China.
Intensions failed
The Indo-Pacific strategy taken initiative by the US and Japan aims to display ‘deterrence to the hegemonic behaviors of China’, but relations of the regional members with her are complicated. It is only the joint statement between the US and Japan that points to ‘China’, and the ones between US and ROK and of the Quad use phrases ‘according to international law’, ‘legitimate economic activities’ and ‘freedom of navigation and overflight’ in the texts.
India is essential among the four: though it has border conflicts with China, it prioritizes national interests to rivalry as is seen in the fact it is a member of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The rest parties are obliged to admit the posture of India in order to unite it.
Meanwhile, military responses against Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are emphasized in the US-ROK joint communique, including usage of phrases of ‘the enlarged deterrence strategy’, ‘to expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises and training’ and ‘to deploy strategic US military assets’, finalizing the dialogue-first policy of the previous administration led by President Moon Jae-in.
Disagreements on Russia, too
Concerning Russian intervention to Ukraine, the US-Japan statement underlines criticisms and sanctions on Russia, while the US-ROK version virtually says implementation of voluntary measures to impede Russia’s additional offensive commitments.
Russia is not referred to even in the Quad’s statement on account of India, which is treated carefully and politely because it has empowered itself militarily with weaponry of that nation.
The four-party alliance provides ‘ASEAN unity and centrality, or Association of South Eastern Asian Nations, but Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia have a one-party system and welcome investments of and trade with China. As for Myanmar, armaments are supplied to its military by Russia and China. The ‘unity and centrality’ sounds empty.
President Biden proposed an economic cooperation scheme to cope with China, IPEF or Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which, ostensibly, the members have ‘supported’. The US has not returned to TPP due to its domestic implications and the new formula removes the issue on tariffs. Is the new commerce plan attractive? Many nations keep a see-and-watch position.
Prime Minister Kishida Fumio pledged boosting Japan’s defense capabilities and compiling an increased budget in concert, while the US president mentioned ‘military intervention’ in an emergency on Taiwan. Responding to harsh condemnation from China, US Secretary of State reverted the president’s expression, rectifying to say that the US policy on Taiwan remains the same. But he added, complaining that ‘the nation is repressive internally and offensive externally.
Where will solution toward peace be found?
Separately, China and Russia have conducted joint flying exercises of bombers. DPRK has launched various types of missiles lately. The former two nations have rejected the UNSC’s resolution against DPRK to show a bloc of the three, while US-Japan coalition refuted it by deploying fighters.
No sign for peaceful solution can be seen in the Biden-Kishida combination’s diplomacy. It has just intensified military tensions as well as hostility for hegemony.
June 8, 2022