No. 1270 How to Analyze House of Councilors Election Results
The 26th-round election for the Upper House has resulted in giving two-thirds of the seats to those lawmakers who agree to amend the Peace Constitution. Meanwhile, however, the Social-Democratic Party (SDP) was successful in maintaining its status as a political party through massive efforts made by the civic pro-constitution forces. Let’s keep going forward to strengthen a third pole to defend the war-renouncing constitution, analyzing rightly the results, learning lessons for the future.
LET’S BUILD UP THIRD POLE OF DEFENDING CONSTITUTION
Lawmakers who want to rewrite the constitution have obtained two-thirds of the seats in the Upper House, and ultra-rightist political parties have risen up, like the Ishin, the NHK Party, and the San-Sei Party. Under the difficult circumstances the SDP could keep its rank of a political party, increasing votes by 210 thousand from the results of the 2019 election and by 240 thousand, when compared with that of the 2021 House of Representative elections. That means an advance in which a third pole of pro-constitution is retained.
Voter’s expectation was limited
The accomplishment has been brought by hard work of those forces who want to defend the Peace Constitution, including the New Socialist Party (NSP). The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) have decreased the number of ballots, while the SDP had suffered, a year and a half ago, a split in which a large number of the members had joined the CDP. Judging from the circumstances, the July election was successful to the SDP.
However, from a perspective of the number of votes, the SDP has obtained as similar as that of the NHK Party, which means that expectation of the electorate to a third pole of pro-constitution remains limited. The NSP planned to gain as many as 150 thousand votes for its candidate in the proportional representation channel, but the outcome was far lower than the target, which needs a right and profound analysis.
The pro-constitution camp has been defeated in the July election mainly and clearly because the opposition parties could not get unified: as for the single-seated constituencies, the jointly-supported candidates have won only in four of them, which is the same level of the 2013 election. Such candidates enjoyed victory in ten of the single-seated constituencies in 2019. Voters were thinking over to evade ‘a candidate who could not win’, which impacted on the ballots for proportional representation seats.
The causes are attributable to the reluctance of the CDP in cooperation with opposition forces and its flinch in the political line. The party has not presented policies to impede the government’s moves toward amending the constitution, and failed in objecting the regime’s proclamation to double the military expenditure in the current trend of military expansion, taking advantage of the intrusion to Ukraine by the Russian forces. The major appeal of the CDP lay in criticizing the inflation yielded by the Kishida government, which could not serve as a counter-policy of the administraation, unable to play a role of opposing argument. It did not present a hope to voters.
It was only the JCP, the Reiwa Party, the SDP and the NSP that emphasized a pro-constitution stance, which was not sufficient to attract voters’ attention. Many of them did not regard the issue as vital. In addition, former Prime Minister was shot to death in the street, which affected on the reasonable mind of many voters.
Let’s get united with broader people!
The ruling forces will intensify their drives to revise the constitution with the support from several political parties; some are opposition parties, but advocates to rewrite the constitution. That is why a Third Pole of Pro-Constitution is necessary. We have a sole way - to unite broader strata of people who appreciate the constitutional principles. We have heard voices, during the election campaign, that the society should be changed as it produces many sufferings; irregular workers shouted we are humans. The calls of people represent a solemn wish to live in a society where constitutional rules are well implemented.
We cannot afford to be beaten by the election result and need not to be so. We, the NSP, will keep going forward, learning lessons from the election and hoisting high the banner of pro-constitution with all the strength of party members.
改憲派が３分の２超の議席を占め、維新、ＮＨＫ党、参政党と極右勢力が伸長する厳しい結果の中で、社民党が19年比21万票、21衆議院選挙から24万票を増やし、政党要件を維持したことは、「護憲第三極」の拠点を守った意味で大きな成果と言える。
期待は「限定的」
新社会党を含め、憲法を守りたいという人々の奮闘によるところ大と評価したい。立民、共産が票を減らす中で、さらに社民からは一昨年末の大量の立民移行の影響があった上での得票増は評価してよい結果である。
ただし、社民党の得票数はＮＨＫ党と同程度であり、「護憲第三極」に対する期待は限定的なものにとどまっていることは否めない。また新社会党が目標とした候補者個人名15万票を大きく下回ったことの原因を正しく分析するなど、十分な総括が必要だ。
今回の立憲野党敗北の最大要因は、19年の１人区10勝が13年と同じ４勝に後退するなど、野党共闘の不成立にあったことは明らかであり、選挙区での「勝てる展望のなさ」が比例にも影響したとも考えられる。
その原因は、立民の野党共闘への消極姿勢と政策のブレにある。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻という「軍拡世論」が形成される中、改憲阻止や軍事費２倍化反対を打ち出さず、「岸田インフレ批判」がメインでは、争点・対抗軸とはならず、国民の期待に応える姿は見えなかった。
護憲や軍事強化反対を正面から訴えたのは、共産、れいわ、社民、新社会にとどまり、争点化するに至らなかった。そこに、安倍元首相の銃撃事件が重なり、国民の「理性が揺さぶられた」ことも影響したとも言える。
幅広い結集に全力
改憲を求める野党勢力を追い風に、政権の改憲策動が強まる。だからこそ「護憲第三極」が必要であり、幅広い憲法を生かす勢力の結集に全力を尽くす以外に道はない。選挙を通して繋がった「生きづらさを生む社会を変えたい」という声や、「私たちは人間だ」という非正規労働者の声は、憲法が生かされる社会を切望する声そのものだ。結果に下を向いている暇もないし、下を向く必要もない。新社会党は全党挙げた総括運動の上に「護憲の旗」を高く掲げ、歩みを進めよう。
英訳版↓
No. 1270 How to Analyze House of Councilors Election Results
The 26th-round election for the Upper House has resulted in giving two-thirds of the seats to those lawmakers who agree to amend the Peace Constitution. Meanwhile, however, the Social-Democratic Party (SDP) was successful in maintaining its status as a political party through massive efforts made by the civic pro-constitution forces. Let’s keep going forward to strengthen a third pole to defend the war-renouncing constitution, analyzing rightly the results, learning lessons for the future.
LET’S BUILD UP THIRD POLE OF DEFENDING CONSTITUTION
Lawmakers who want to rewrite the constitution have obtained two-thirds of the seats in the Upper House, and ultra-rightist political parties have risen up, like the Ishin, the NHK Party, and the San-Sei Party. Under the difficult circumstances the SDP could keep its rank of a political party, increasing votes by 210 thousand from the results of the 2019 election and by 240 thousand, when compared with that of the 2021 House of Representative elections. That means an advance in which a third pole of pro-constitution is retained.
Voter’s expectation was limited
The accomplishment has been brought by hard work of those forces who want to defend the Peace Constitution, including the New Socialist Party (NSP). The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) have decreased the number of ballots, while the SDP had suffered, a year and a half ago, a split in which a large number of the members had joined the CDP. Judging from the circumstances, the July election was successful to the SDP.
However, from a perspective of the number of votes, the SDP has obtained as similar as that of the NHK Party, which means that expectation of the electorate to a third pole of pro-constitution remains limited. The NSP planned to gain as many as 150 thousand votes for its candidate in the proportional representation channel, but the outcome was far lower than the target, which needs a right and profound analysis.
The pro-constitution camp has been defeated in the July election mainly and clearly because the opposition parties could not get unified: as for the single-seated constituencies, the jointly-supported candidates have won only in four of them, which is the same level of the 2013 election. Such candidates enjoyed victory in ten of the single-seated constituencies in 2019. Voters were thinking over to evade ‘a candidate who could not win’, which impacted on the ballots for proportional representation seats.
The causes are attributable to the reluctance of the CDP in cooperation with opposition forces and its flinch in the political line. The party has not presented policies to impede the government’s moves toward amending the constitution, and failed in objecting the regime’s proclamation to double the military expenditure in the current trend of military expansion, taking advantage of the intrusion to Ukraine by the Russian forces. The major appeal of the CDP lay in criticizing the inflation yielded by the Kishida government, which could not serve as a counter-policy of the administraation, unable to play a role of opposing argument. It did not present a hope to voters.
It was only the JCP, the Reiwa Party, the SDP and the NSP that emphasized a pro-constitution stance, which was not sufficient to attract voters’ attention. Many of them did not regard the issue as vital. In addition, former Prime Minister was shot to death in the street, which affected on the reasonable mind of many voters.
Let’s get united with broader people!
The ruling forces will intensify their drives to revise the constitution with the support from several political parties; some are opposition parties, but advocates to rewrite the constitution. That is why a Third Pole of Pro-Constitution is necessary. We have a sole way - to unite broader strata of people who appreciate the constitutional principles. We have heard voices, during the election campaign, that the society should be changed as it produces many sufferings; irregular workers shouted we are humans. The calls of people represent a solemn wish to live in a society where constitutional rules are well implemented.
We cannot afford to be beaten by the election result and need not to be so. We, the NSP, will keep going forward, learning lessons from the election and hoisting high the banner of pro-constitution with all the strength of party members.
August 10, 2022