No. 1279 Drastic Change due to War waged by Russia
The 27th Conference of the Parties of UN Framework on Climate Change (COP27) will be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6. A year has passed since the COP26. The international environment has changed radically due to the armed conflict in Ukraine waged by Russia.
NEW MISSIONS OF COP27
A decade of decisive importance
The 2015 Paris Agreement provides ‘an objective to limit the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degree Celsius in comparison with pre-industrial level’. In the COP26 last year an accord was made to reduce emission of greenhouse effect gases by 45% by the year 2030 in comparison with that of the 2010. At this moment many countries are carrying out concretely what they agreed on, implementing key measures of the ten years’ plan.
Coping with changing climate is a pressing task. The Parties count 197 nations and two regions, which vary enormously in terms of economy and geography, and, therefore, agreements have not been easily reached.
Concerning the emission of greenhouse effect gases, the entire volume coming from the least emitting 100 countries occupies 3% of the world’s total. Meanwhile, ten biggest emitter countries, including China, US and India, occupy 68%. For this reason, the conferences have seen sharp, conflicting relations between developed countries and developing countries on the emission volume.
Developing nations request developed countries to transfer technologies and provide funds so that their economic development and environmental impacts may be well-coordinated. On the other hand, however, developed countries, which are promptly urged to reduce emission of greenhouse gases, cannot afford practically to fill up gaps between the objectives and the realities.
Under these circumstances has happened the invasion to Ukraine by Russian troops, and, subsequently, international environment has changed rapidly concerning the reduction of greenhouse effect gases.
Countries which depend on Russian natural gas, coal and crude oil are inflicted on limited supplies due to their sanction policies and, thus, prices have surged quickly. These countries are obliged to review their energy policies to alter.
Especially, Germany, which relies highly on Russia, is compelled to change the energy policy in an urgent manner. The country depended on fossil fuels by a level of 80% in the year 2021. It has a target to develop renewable energy sources by 2030 to occupy up to 80% of electricity to be generated. The goal is expected to be achieved earlier. On the other hand, however, the current administration has announced to shelve closing of nuclear power plants.
Japanese government will enhance nuclear power generation
If many countries convert to renewable energy sources as a pivotal choice in their energy security strategies, learning a lesson from the war waged by Russia, proceedings to cope with climate change will go better and faster.
Meanwhile, some countries rush dependance on nuclear power and coal, taking advantage of the war staged by Russia. Japan is a typical case. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio told August 24 that the suspended nuclear power stations should be re-operated and new plants should be built. The government has changed completely the policies on nuclear power generation.
The COP27 has critical tasks how to get out of dependance on fossil fuels, whose supplies are obstructed to the rest of the world by the war staged by Russia, and how to hasten development of renewable energy sources.
「決定的な10年」
昨年のＣＯＰ26では、２０１５年パリ協定の「産業革命以前と比べて気温上昇を１・５度に抑える目標」を踏まえ、２０１０年対比で温室効果ガスの排出量を２０３０年までに45％削減で合意した。現在、各国が「合意」を具体的に進める「決定的な10年」が進行中だ。
待ったなしの気候変動対策だが、締結国１９７カ国・地域は経済や地理的条件など違いが大きく、これまでも合意は簡単ではなかった。
ちなみに、世界の温室効果ガス排出量は、少ない１００カ国の総計が総排出量の３％に対し、中国、米国、インドなど多い10カ国で68％を占める。そのため、途上国と先進国とが排出量を巡って対立してきた。
途上国は、経済成長と環境対策を両立させるため先進国に技術、資金など援助を求める。他方、早急な温室効果ガス削減が迫られている先進国は、目標と現実の乖離(かいり)が埋められないのが現状だ。
そうした中で、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻が起き、温室効果ガス削減を巡る国際環境も激変した。
ロシアからの天然ガスや石炭、原油輸入に依存している国々は、ロシアに対する経済制裁で供給が制約され、価格も急上昇した。そのため各国はエネルギー政策の再検討や見直しが迫られている。
特にロシアへの依存度が高いドイツではエネルギー政策転換の加速が求められている。ドイツの化石燃料の依存度は２０２１年で80％。２０３０年までに再生可能エネルギーを総電力量の80％と目標を掲げるが、前倒しが期待される。一方で脱原発の延期も発表している。
日本は原発回帰へ
各国がロシアの始めた戦争を教訓に、自国のエネルギー安全保障政策の軸を再生可能エネルギーに転換すれば、気候変動対策がこれまで以上に進むだろう。
他方、ロシアの戦争を契機に石炭火力と原発依存を加速させる動きもあり、その典型が日本だ。岸田文雄首相は８月24日、原発再稼働や新増設、稼働期間の延長など、原発政策の１８０度転換に踏み出した。
ＣＯＰ27は、ロシアの戦争が世界に突き付けた化石燃料からの脱却と、再生可能エネルギーの加速化にどう取り組むかが最大の課題だ。
英訳版↓
No. 1279 Drastic Change due to War waged by Russia
The 27th Conference of the Parties of UN Framework on Climate Change (COP27) will be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6. A year has passed since the COP26. The international environment has changed radically due to the armed conflict in Ukraine waged by Russia.
NEW MISSIONS OF COP27
A decade of decisive importance
The 2015 Paris Agreement provides ‘an objective to limit the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degree Celsius in comparison with pre-industrial level’. In the COP26 last year an accord was made to reduce emission of greenhouse effect gases by 45% by the year 2030 in comparison with that of the 2010. At this moment many countries are carrying out concretely what they agreed on, implementing key measures of the ten years’ plan.
Coping with changing climate is a pressing task. The Parties count 197 nations and two regions, which vary enormously in terms of economy and geography, and, therefore, agreements have not been easily reached.
Concerning the emission of greenhouse effect gases, the entire volume coming from the least emitting 100 countries occupies 3% of the world’s total. Meanwhile, ten biggest emitter countries, including China, US and India, occupy 68%. For this reason, the conferences have seen sharp, conflicting relations between developed countries and developing countries on the emission volume.
Developing nations request developed countries to transfer technologies and provide funds so that their economic development and environmental impacts may be well-coordinated. On the other hand, however, developed countries, which are promptly urged to reduce emission of greenhouse gases, cannot afford practically to fill up gaps between the objectives and the realities.
Under these circumstances has happened the invasion to Ukraine by Russian troops, and, subsequently, international environment has changed rapidly concerning the reduction of greenhouse effect gases.
Countries which depend on Russian natural gas, coal and crude oil are inflicted on limited supplies due to their sanction policies and, thus, prices have surged quickly. These countries are obliged to review their energy policies to alter.
Especially, Germany, which relies highly on Russia, is compelled to change the energy policy in an urgent manner. The country depended on fossil fuels by a level of 80% in the year 2021. It has a target to develop renewable energy sources by 2030 to occupy up to 80% of electricity to be generated. The goal is expected to be achieved earlier. On the other hand, however, the current administration has announced to shelve closing of nuclear power plants.
Japanese government will enhance nuclear power generation
If many countries convert to renewable energy sources as a pivotal choice in their energy security strategies, learning a lesson from the war waged by Russia, proceedings to cope with climate change will go better and faster.
Meanwhile, some countries rush dependance on nuclear power and coal, taking advantage of the war staged by Russia. Japan is a typical case. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio told August 24 that the suspended nuclear power stations should be re-operated and new plants should be built. The government has changed completely the policies on nuclear power generation.
The COP27 has critical tasks how to get out of dependance on fossil fuels, whose supplies are obstructed to the rest of the world by the war staged by Russia, and how to hasten development of renewable energy sources.
October 19, 2022