The incumbent Governor Koike Yuriko was reelected for the third term consecutively in the recent Tokyo’s governorship election. Candidate Renho ranked in the third place, following Candidate Ishimaru Shinji. Let’s look back the campaigns, in which united efforts between civic groups and the opposition political parties were elaborately pursued, analyzing the results to overcome weak points so that we can stage successful operations for the coming state’s level elections.
LET’S DEVELOP JOINT STRUGGLES MORE POWERFUL AND EXTENSIVE!
Victory of Ms Koike is foreseen in the exit polls; ‘as for the rate of the electorate who appreciate the governorship of Koike’, it is fairly high as the newspaper Asahi announced 54%, while the Yomiuri, 68%. The incumbent leader has accomplished policies, spending much money from the financial ability of Tokyo. For instance, ‘a monthly benefit of \5,000 to children under 18 years of age’ (the fiscal 2023 budget). Another factor comes from her successful dodging from the open TV discussion programs in order to escape from exposures to the problems in her career.
Amid rightward trend she fought resiliently
Ms Renho was immensely affected by Mr. Ishimaru, who asserted himself as independent, free of connections of the political groupings.
Several newspapers say:
Those who do not appreciate Koike’s governorship occupy 31% of the electorate, out of which 37% voted for Ishimaru, while 32%, for Renho (the Asahi dated July 9).
Concerning the electorate especially interested in the issue of politics and money, they chose firstly Ishimaru, and, secondly, Renho (the Yomiuri dated July 7).
As for non-partisan voters (who occupy over one-third of the electorate), 38% of them voted for Ishimaru, while 16%, for Renho (the Tokyo dated July 8). The results say that the Renho’s camp could not sufficiently secure voters to be taken in.
As for Ms Koike, she has won 70% of votes of affiliates to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and 80% of voters of the partner, the Komeito (the exit poll by the newspaper Tokyo). Renho has gained approximately 70% of the ballots from affiliates to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party (the same newspaper). That means she has fought strenuously amid the rightward trend in which military buildup is being hailed.
Though there is a broad base of support, only 16% of the non-partizan voters cast a ballot for Renho, as in the same way as there were variations in terms of the support rate from a political party to another. Thus, she has come third in the election.
What happened after nomination of Candidate Renho
As for ‘united efforts of civic groups and the opposition parties’ had been excellent before the nomination as far as the candidate selection procedures and the policy compilation were concerned. Complications came up later.
The first was a fact that the CDP itself organized the election campaigns, avoiding consultations with civic groups. Under the circumstances, a-single-person street propaganda activities were carried out voluntarily, which counted several thousands of times in total. If the CDP’s campaign office encouraged civic organizations, the number would have grown severalfold.
As for street oratories for Candidate Renho, speakers were the CDP’s MPs and Tokyo Assembly’s members. Those of other political parties and the civic organizations could hardly have chances. Many have pointed out that the speakers themselves ostensively seemed to represent ‘distrust in politics and political parties.
Substantial unity is necessary
The current unison of citizens with political parties is a great legacy of the campaigns waged in 2015 against the so-called war legislation. Unity is the sole way to encounter the bloc of LDP, the Komeito, the Ishin and the DPFP (=Democratic Party for the People), although have been waged various types of attacks to remove the Communist Party.
The joint struggle of civic groups and the opposition parties must be enhanced: organizational efforts should be made more extensively and movements should be reinforced on the daily basis, not limiting to pre-election activities. It is necessary to stage mass movements routinely, criticizing the metropolitan-level (state-level) politics. It is also essential to work actively through SNS.
先の東京都知事選挙は、小池百合子知事の３選となった。蓮舫氏は石丸伸二氏に次ぐ３位だった。「市民と野党」共闘候補の選挙戦を振り返り、弱点を克服し、来るべき衆・参選挙の糧としたい。
小池氏の勝利は出口調査で分かる。「小池都政を評価する」が、54％（読売）～68％（朝日）と高い。東京の財政力を目に見える形で実施した。例えば「18歳以下の子ども１人に月５０００円配布（23年度予算）」である。また、問題点隠蔽のためテレビ公開討論会などから逃げ回った「成果」も大きい。
右傾化の中で奮闘
蓮舫氏は無党派を標ひょうぼう榜する石丸氏の影響を大きく受けた。「小池都政を評価しない（31％）内、37％が石丸、32％が蓮舫」（朝日７／９）。「政治とカネの問題を重視した人の投票先は石丸１位、蓮舫２ 位」（ 読売７ ／７）。無党派層（投票者の３分の１超）は「石丸38％、蓮舫16％」（東京７／８）であった。蓮舫陣営は獲得すべき有権者を十分確保できなかったことを示す。
小池氏は、自民支持層の７割、公明の８割を固めた（出口調査・東京）。蓮舫氏は、立憲・共産・社民の支持層の約７割を固めた（同）。軍備拡大を容認する右傾化の中で奮闘したと言える。
ただ、各政党の支持率が違うように、「支持層の厚さ」と無党派層の16％しか確保できず３位になったと言える。
候補者の決定後に
さて、蓮舫候補の実現までの「市民と野党共闘」は、候補者決定も政策づくりも画期的だった。問題はその後である。
その一番は候補者決定以降、「市民と立憲野党」の協議がなく、選挙戦を立憲がほぼ仕切ったことであろう。その中で、自主的な「ひとり街宣」は、延べ数千人が行った。選対が要請すれば数倍化したと思われる。
蓮舫氏の街頭演説も立憲の国会議員・都議が中心で、その他の立憲野党・市民の出番が少なく、かつ「政治不信」「政党不信」に逆らう様な弁士陣だったとの指摘が強い。
「共闘」の充実を
現状の「市民と野党の共闘」は２０１５年の「戦争法」の闘いの大きな財産である。様々な「共産党排除」の攻撃があるが、自・公・維・国等と対決するにはこの道以外はない。
「市民と野党の共闘」は、各々の組織・運動の一層の強化、及び選挙直前でなく、日常的な「都政（国政）批判と大衆運動」が必要であるし、ＳＮＳ・動画サイトの強化も必須である。
英訳版↓
No. 1365 Lessons from Tokyo Governor’s Election
The incumbent Governor Koike Yuriko was reelected for the third term consecutively in the recent Tokyo’s governorship election. Candidate Renho ranked in the third place, following Candidate Ishimaru Shinji. Let’s look back the campaigns, in which united efforts between civic groups and the opposition political parties were elaborately pursued, analyzing the results to overcome weak points so that we can stage successful operations for the coming state’s level elections.
LET’S DEVELOP JOINT STRUGGLES MORE POWERFUL AND EXTENSIVE!
Victory of Ms Koike is foreseen in the exit polls; ‘as for the rate of the electorate who appreciate the governorship of Koike’, it is fairly high as the newspaper Asahi announced 54%, while the Yomiuri, 68%. The incumbent leader has accomplished policies, spending much money from the financial ability of Tokyo. For instance, ‘a monthly benefit of \5,000 to children under 18 years of age’ (the fiscal 2023 budget). Another factor comes from her successful dodging from the open TV discussion programs in order to escape from exposures to the problems in her career.
Amid rightward trend she fought resiliently
Ms Renho was immensely affected by Mr. Ishimaru, who asserted himself as independent, free of connections of the political groupings.
Several newspapers say:
Those who do not appreciate Koike’s governorship occupy 31% of the electorate, out of which 37% voted for Ishimaru, while 32%, for Renho (the Asahi dated July 9).
Concerning the electorate especially interested in the issue of politics and money, they chose firstly Ishimaru, and, secondly, Renho (the Yomiuri dated July 7).
As for non-partisan voters (who occupy over one-third of the electorate), 38% of them voted for Ishimaru, while 16%, for Renho (the Tokyo dated July 8). The results say that the Renho’s camp could not sufficiently secure voters to be taken in.
As for Ms Koike, she has won 70% of votes of affiliates to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and 80% of voters of the partner, the Komeito (the exit poll by the newspaper Tokyo). Renho has gained approximately 70% of the ballots from affiliates to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party (the same newspaper). That means she has fought strenuously amid the rightward trend in which military buildup is being hailed.
Though there is a broad base of support, only 16% of the non-partizan voters cast a ballot for Renho, as in the same way as there were variations in terms of the support rate from a political party to another. Thus, she has come third in the election.
What happened after nomination of Candidate Renho
As for ‘united efforts of civic groups and the opposition parties’ had been excellent before the nomination as far as the candidate selection procedures and the policy compilation were concerned. Complications came up later.
The first was a fact that the CDP itself organized the election campaigns, avoiding consultations with civic groups. Under the circumstances, a-single-person street propaganda activities were carried out voluntarily, which counted several thousands of times in total. If the CDP’s campaign office encouraged civic organizations, the number would have grown severalfold.
As for street oratories for Candidate Renho, speakers were the CDP’s MPs and Tokyo Assembly’s members. Those of other political parties and the civic organizations could hardly have chances. Many have pointed out that the speakers themselves ostensively seemed to represent ‘distrust in politics and political parties.
Substantial unity is necessary
The current unison of citizens with political parties is a great legacy of the campaigns waged in 2015 against the so-called war legislation. Unity is the sole way to encounter the bloc of LDP, the Komeito, the Ishin and the DPFP (=Democratic Party for the People), although have been waged various types of attacks to remove the Communist Party.
The joint struggle of civic groups and the opposition parties must be enhanced: organizational efforts should be made more extensively and movements should be reinforced on the daily basis, not limiting to pre-election activities. It is necessary to stage mass movements routinely, criticizing the metropolitan-level (state-level) politics. It is also essential to work actively through SNS.
August 7, 2024