According to the results of the presidential primary election of the Republican Party held in January, Mr. Trump almost clinched the party’s nomination for the November general election. Many of media say that Trump will be more promising than Biden in the final election. The results may impact on Japan, too.
LET’S BREAK AWAY FROM THE BILATERAL ALLIANCE!
The United States used to be the most powerful country which asserts ‘free and open democracy’.
Today, after showing off triumph….
According to an article of the Nikkei on January 25, Ian Bremmer, a US political scientist, says that ‘US military and political capabilities remain robust, but the domestic political system does not work well, ranking in the worst position of the advanced democratic nations’, and ‘US citizens now think that they cannot believe in common solid facts in the nation and in the world’.
In addition, concerning the US’s support for the genocide conducted by Israel, the powerful nation has become more solitary than Putin.
It has passed over 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, if we recollect the history. The US has boasted of its victory amidst the globalized neo-liberalism, insisting on its own values relying on the market economy, and has attempted to permeate into the rest of the world. It has been, however, totally fatigued by the failures in the Middle East in carrying out ‘democratization’ by military means and wars against terrorism.
Dissatisfactions go toward Trump
China, which the US had wanted to tame, has developed rapidly for themselves, meanwhile US workers, exposed directly to the competitions with China, in the car industry, in particular, have aggravated their livelihood. And now Trump has emerged as an ally of workers.
The US has kept relations with China not by way of free trade but by decoupling, bolstering its military engagement around the latter. Meanwhile, the US administration achieved a generous benefit policy during the pandemic. Thanks to the advance of the leftwing faction inside the Democratic Party, which is against the tight monetary policy, the neo-liberal line has been rectified by all means.
Unfortunately, however, people’s dissatisfactions have invoked Mr. Trump. The situation today is serious.
Encouraging deterrence policy
The problem is not limited only to the US. Japan is thoroughly connected with her through the so-called three security agreements. Even if Trump is reelected in November, who insists on unilateralism, though, it is unlikely that he will stage a war against China. He may provoke military tension so that Japan can be dragged in an armed conflict. In Japan debates will start to boost up deterrence, including nuclear armament: as it is impossible to foresee what will happen in the international political scene and the US’s deterrent capacity is undependable.
Mass media have reported that in the US a review will be made whether 60% tariff will be imposed on imported items from China, if Trump wins the election (Washington Post dated January 27). Nobody knows what will happen; US may request Japan to correct the current cheap Yen measure or she may set up tariff barriers. Even if Biden succeeds, he will not be free from the social realties which have brought forth Trump.
Japan should throw away the current ‘economic security policy’ in order to fortify economic relations; withdrawing from the US-Japan alliance, abandoning deployment of missiles in the southwestern islands including Okinawa and making efforts to ease tensions with China.
米共和党の大統領予備選（１月）の結果では、共和党の候補はほぼトランプで決まりで、11月のバイデン×トランプ対決はトランプ有利との報道が多い。その結果は日本をも左右しかねない。
米国は、「自由で開かれた民主主義」を標榜する世界最強の国であった。
勝ち誇った結果は
しかし今や「軍事力と政治力は極めて強いままだが、米政治システムの機能不全は先進民主主義国の中で最もひどい」「米国人はもはや国家と世界に関する共通の確定事実があるとは信じられなくなってきている」（『日経』１月25日。米国の政治学者イアン・ブレマー）という。
そして、イスラエルのジェノサイド支持でプーチン以上の孤立に陥っている。
振り返れば、ソ連が崩壊して30年余が経過した。米国は勝ち誇り、新自由主義はグローバル化し、市場経済に立つ自国の価値観で世界を染めあげようとした。だが、中東の軍事的による「民主化」の失敗と対テロ戦争で疲弊した。
不満がトランプを
手なずけようとした中国は自力で急成長し、自動車をはじめ中国との競争にさらされた労働者の状態は悪化し、「労働者の味方」としてトランプが登場した。
米国は中国に自由貿易ならぬデカップリング（切り離し）で臨み、対中軍事的包囲網を形成した。一方で、コロナ対策での多額の現金給付を実行し、民主党内の反緊縮左派の伸長で所得の再分配政策など新自由主義を正す方向に向かったことはまちがいない。
しかし、それでも格差への不満はトランプを呼び出したのだから深刻である。
抑止力強化論へと
他人事ではない。日本は「安保三文書」で米国と連結されている。「一国」主義のトランプが再選されても、中国に戦争をしかけるわけではない。軍事的緊張を醸成し、日本に戦わせるだけだ。国際情勢は「予測不可能」、米国の「核抑止力」もあてにならないと、日本では核武装も含めた「抑止力」強化論が強まるだろう。
トランプが当選したら中国からの輸入に60％の関税を検討すると報じられた（『ワシントン・ポスト』１月27日）。日本にも円安是正を求め、関税障壁を築くなど、何をするかわからない。バイデンが勝っても、トランプを生んだ現実から自由ではない。
日本は「日米同盟」から離脱し、ミサイルの沖縄配備をやめて中国との緊張緩和の努力をし、経済関係強化のために「経済安保」政策を転換すべきである。
英訳版↓
No. 1342 The United States is Seriously Ill
According to the results of the presidential primary election of the Republican Party held in January, Mr. Trump almost clinched the party’s nomination for the November general election. Many of media say that Trump will be more promising than Biden in the final election. The results may impact on Japan, too.
LET’S BREAK AWAY FROM THE BILATERAL ALLIANCE!
The United States used to be the most powerful country which asserts ‘free and open democracy’.
Today, after showing off triumph….
According to an article of the Nikkei on January 25, Ian Bremmer, a US political scientist, says that ‘US military and political capabilities remain robust, but the domestic political system does not work well, ranking in the worst position of the advanced democratic nations’, and ‘US citizens now think that they cannot believe in common solid facts in the nation and in the world’.
In addition, concerning the US’s support for the genocide conducted by Israel, the powerful nation has become more solitary than Putin.
It has passed over 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, if we recollect the history. The US has boasted of its victory amidst the globalized neo-liberalism, insisting on its own values relying on the market economy, and has attempted to permeate into the rest of the world. It has been, however, totally fatigued by the failures in the Middle East in carrying out ‘democratization’ by military means and wars against terrorism.
Dissatisfactions go toward Trump
China, which the US had wanted to tame, has developed rapidly for themselves, meanwhile US workers, exposed directly to the competitions with China, in the car industry, in particular, have aggravated their livelihood. And now Trump has emerged as an ally of workers.
The US has kept relations with China not by way of free trade but by decoupling, bolstering its military engagement around the latter. Meanwhile, the US administration achieved a generous benefit policy during the pandemic. Thanks to the advance of the leftwing faction inside the Democratic Party, which is against the tight monetary policy, the neo-liberal line has been rectified by all means.
Unfortunately, however, people’s dissatisfactions have invoked Mr. Trump. The situation today is serious.
Encouraging deterrence policy
The problem is not limited only to the US. Japan is thoroughly connected with her through the so-called three security agreements. Even if Trump is reelected in November, who insists on unilateralism, though, it is unlikely that he will stage a war against China. He may provoke military tension so that Japan can be dragged in an armed conflict. In Japan debates will start to boost up deterrence, including nuclear armament: as it is impossible to foresee what will happen in the international political scene and the US’s deterrent capacity is undependable.
Mass media have reported that in the US a review will be made whether 60% tariff will be imposed on imported items from China, if Trump wins the election (Washington Post dated January 27). Nobody knows what will happen; US may request Japan to correct the current cheap Yen measure or she may set up tariff barriers. Even if Biden succeeds, he will not be free from the social realties which have brought forth Trump.
Japan should throw away the current ‘economic security policy’ in order to fortify economic relations; withdrawing from the US-Japan alliance, abandoning deployment of missiles in the southwestern islands including Okinawa and making efforts to ease tensions with China.
February 14, 2024